Political experts expect mixed Super Tuesday results
Katelyn Harding
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One family, two parties and two presidential candidates. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger endorsed Republican John McCain last week while his wife Maria Shriver endorsed Democrat Barack Obama.
This is but the latest twist to the already unconventional 2008 presidential primary season which had pundits and pollsters stymied ahead of Super Tuesday.
On the Republican side, it may have been a little easier to predict a winner. Polls ahead of the Super Tuesday showdown showed Arizona Sen. John McCain had a 20-point lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in a distant third, according to RealClearPolitics.com.
 Director of Suffolk University's Political Research Center, David Paleologos |
David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University's Political Research Center, said former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's endorsement of McCain would help a lot in New York and New Jersey. Suffolk University's Research Center already had McCain polling ahead of Romney by 8 to 9 points before Giuliani's endorsement, Paleologos said, so Giuliani's endorsement will only help McCain widen the gap between himself and Romney.
On the Democratic side, polls indicated it was a little more complicated. According to CNN/Opinion Research Corp. on Monday, Sen. Barack Obama had closed the gap between himself and Sen. Clinton, resulting in a "dead heat" going into Super Tuesday, with Obama at 49 percent and Clinton at 46 percent.
Paleologos said he thinks Clinton will emerge as the front-runner of the Democratic Party after Super Tuesday.
"Obama will close the gap, but he's so far behind in some of these big states, he would have to win every single state that's too close," Paleologos said. "When they [the voters] color in that map Tuesday night, there are not a lot of Obama states on it."
On the other hand, Tim McCarthy, a professor at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy's School of Government, does not think there will be a front-runner for the Democrats after the Feb. 5 voting. He said the Democrats are in the midst of a "historic race" between "two incredible candidates." McCarthy added that it will come down to a delegate race.
The Republicans have experienced the "same level of discomfort" during this presidential election, McCarthy said, yet he predicted McCain will most go on to win the nomination.
Professor David King, also from the JFK School of Government, said he shares McCarthy's prediction that after Super Tuesday, neither Democratic candidate will be a "knockout" or on clear path to the nomination.
But for the Republicans, King said he believes that tomorrow's winner for the GOP will most likely be the nominee in November.
"The rules [for both parties] are very different. The Republicans have a winner-take-all system," King said. "[For] the Democrats most primaries are proportional, not winner-take-all and a lot harder to predict. [If you] combine no clear endorsement [with] representation delegates, it makes the picture much less clear."
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